Extending System Dynamics Modeling Using Simulation Decomposition to Improve the Urban Planning Process

This paper applies SimDec to a classic system dynamics model of urban planning (URBAN1). The goal is to move beyond time-series plots common for system dynamics studies and expose how combinations of uncertain inputs shape long-term system outcomes.

By decomposing Monte Carlo outputs, SimDec reveals nonlinear interactions, particularly the asymmetric effects of immigration and outmigration on urban population dynamics, that standard sensitivity analysis would miss. The study demonstrates how SimDec can extend system dynamics modeling in complex social domains.