How to Scale a 3D Concrete Printing Facility? A Stochastic Decision-Support Framework for Production Investment

This paper develops a three-stage stochastic decision-support framework for scaling a commercial 3D concrete printing (3DCP) facility under uncertainty.

Monte Carlo simulation is combined with Simulation Decomposition (SimDec) to interpret simulations not only of uncertain cost parameters, but of strategic decision variables, such as hardware and material upgrades. SimDec makes it possible to visualize how different combinations of investment choices shape unit cost and breakeven production volume.

Rather than treating decisions as fixed inputs, the framework simulates alternative development pathways and decomposes their joint effects. This reveals which upgrades truly drive performance, where diminishing returns occur, and how investment costs reshape priorities.

The case demonstrates how SimDec can structure high-dimensional decision spaces and translate complex simulation results into actionable strategic guidance.